Application of a Deterministic Distributed Hydrological Model for Estimating Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Côte d’Ivoire UsingRCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Scenarios: Case of the Aghien Lagoon

The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the quantitative availability of the Aghien lagoon, which is located in the northwestern district of Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. In the first step, the semi-distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tools)-based physical model [1] was calibrated and validated at the monthly time step in the Mé watershed, where flow rate data are available, from 1960 to 1981. SWAT was then used on the ungauged watershed of the Aghien lagoon, which poses significant challenges for the Abidjan population’s drinking water supply. In a subsequent step, the delta method was used to correct the gross outputs (precipitation, temperatures) of six climate models from the CORDEX-Africa project under the “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) scenarios. These corrected outputs were used as input to the SWAT model to project the impact of climate change on the flow of the Aghien lagoon for the time periods 2040 (2035-2056), 2060 (2057-2078), and 2080. (2079-2100). The projections made on these various Over the period 1960-1981, horizons were compared to simulated flow. The results show that the annual flow of the Aghien lagoon has decreased significantly when compared to the reference period (1960- 1981). Under the medium assumption (RCP 4.5), the models predict an average decrease in annual discharge of nearly 10%. The average annual discharge should fall by more than 17% under the pessimistic hypothesis (RCP 8.5). In both RCP scenarios, monthly flows in August and September would increase by more than 80%, while monthly flows in October and November would increase by more than 20%.

Author (s) Details

Wa Kouakou Charles N’Dri
Laboratory of Sciences and Techniques of Water and Environment, Felix Houphouet-Boigny University of Cocody-Abidjan,Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire and HSM, University of Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France.

Séverin Pistre
HSM, University of Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France.

Jean Patrice Jourda
Laboratory of Sciences and Techniques of Water and Environment, Felix Houphouet-Boigny University of Cocody-Abidjan, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Kan Jean Kouamé
Laboratory of Sciences and Techniques of Water and Environment, Felix Houphouet-Boigny University of Cocody-Abidjan, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

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