Development of Non- Linear Forecasting Model during International Tourists Arrival to Thailand

The purpose concerning this chapter search out develop non-undeviating forecasting models for calling international tourist arrivals in Thailand utilizing data from 1998 to 2014. This dossier was tested utilizing the seasonal whole root test (HEGY-test extent story). Based on this test results, it was discovered that the number of worldwide tourist arrivals to Thailand was impacted for one seasonal part root procedure all the while the study period. As a result, two together the MS-VAR model and the AR model are used to forecast this data for Thailand’s future. The practical findings concerning this study concluded that in extreme seasonal periods, AR (2)-MLE, AR (2)-MLE-bootstrapping, and AR(1)-ME-bootstrapping can be used to forecast the number of worldwide tourist arrivals to Thailand from now on years. In depressed season, however, only AR (1)-ME-bootstrapping maybe used to forecast the number of international sightseer arrivals in Thailand for future years.

Author(s) Details:

Prasert Chaitip,
Faculty of Economics (1993-2017), Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand.

Chukiat Chaiboonsri,
Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand.

Please see the link here: https://stm.bookpi.org/CABEF-V9/article/view/9300

Keywords: Non-linear, Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) model, AR-bootstrap, AR- maximum entropy bootstrap, Thailand